Vaccines are here. Now what?

There may be a shortage of vaccines but there is no shortage of negative impacts COVID-19 is having on the economy. Gas prices are high. Small businesses are shutting down. And experts are predicting a double-dip recession. 

Professor of Natural and Social Sciences at Yale University, Nicholas Christakis, predicts the pandemic to actively impact our economy till 2024. In his most recent book, he details that a vaccine alone is not enough to curb the spread of COVID-19- herd immunity is needed. According to Presidential Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, only 85%-90% herd immunity would be needed for life to return as it was, but time is lost as we wait. Already, millions of people have lost their jobs, lost their businesses, and their children have lost their education. The U.S. was already in debt prior to the pandemic and now the government is neck-deep with debt. And yet, Christakis foresees the beginning of 2024 to be the start of the post-pandemic period, similar to the Roaring 20’s. 

Gas price has steadily increased for the past year due to the invisible hand of the market. With the heavy reliance on automobiles the demand for gas has been higher whilst the supply of it has been lower.  Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis for the website and app GasBuddy, stated “Prices are going up significantly not just because demand is up, but because OPEC has cut production in the last 12 months because of the pandemic.” Moreover, with the winter storm in Texas refineries in the state had to shut down. 

Despite the emphasis on the importance of global solidarity government organizations have been putting out, the reality is that there has been more disunity. Even with attempts to enforce social distancing measures, some insist on being without masks. The mere concept of COVID-19 being a conspiracy has led to division and conflict not only amongst the people but also between the general public and the government. Although messages of remaining local and keeping small businesses open have been put out, almost one in three small businesses have closed which has added to the incurred losses of the economy. Stocks such as GameStop and American Multi-Cinema have been some of the most shorted stocks in this past year due to the businesses suffering financially and having to close shops in their various locations. 

The pandemic, as terrible as it was, could have been worse. 

“Pandemics are not new to the human species — “they’re just new to us,” Christakis says. And fortunately, we’re better equipped to handle the problem, he says.” In the 1900’s when the Spanish flu had spread, society at the time had neither the manpower nor the advanced technology to cope with the virus. We live in a world where multiple vaccines were produced in less than two years. In spite of all of the economic losses humanity is currently experiencing, it is important to understand that the economy functions in a vicious cycle filled with bull and bear markets. Recessions are bound to happen but it is important to remember that they do not last forever.